Chinese Stock Market, The Big Picture of Turbulent Waves
　　
　　Long-term, intermediate-term, & short-term analysis of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
　　
　　The Chinese stock market is not in a vacuum of its own. It is exposedto the environment with a growing risk of inflation in China and agrowing risk of recession in the United States, which could be twomajor fundamental precursors for potential worldwide stagflation. Onemay think that the Chinese market is still bullish for a long term andju你好earish for a short term. On the contrary, the charts here with aspectrum of timeframes suggest that the Shanghai Index currently is ina significant downtrend with a long-term bearish perspective, but itmay have a potential counter-trend rally with a short-term bulli你好ias. Up-and-down is the nature of the stock markets; there are alway你好umps on the way to either direction. This is a very volatile market.Careful evaluation of investment/trading projections and portfolioexposures within proper timeframes or time horizons could be critical.
　　
　　（意译，下同）上证指数的长期、中期与短期波浪分析
　　
　　中国股票市场并非存在于真空之中，它面临着日见增长的国内通胀与美国经济衰退的风险，而这可能是全球范围内经济滞涨的两大主要前导因素。或许人们可以认为A股市场仍然处于长牛短熊之中，但恰恰相反，时间框架内的图谱显示，上证指数正处于明显的下行趋势和熊市前景之中，虽然它具有潜在的逆势反弹与短期牛市倾向。涨跌是市场的常态，总有逆向的波动存在于大趋势之中。这是一个动荡不定的市场，在一个恰当的时间周期之内，对投资标的、投资组合进行审慎估值，是至关重要的。
Chart 1. Long-term picture (monthly chart), comparison with historic world-class stock market bubbles
　　图一，长周期，上证月K线图与其他世界级的股票市场泡沫的比较
　　
　　Chart 2. Intermediate-term picture (weekly chart), a potential BARR pattern
　　中周期周K线图，BARR模式
　　Chart 3. Intermediate-term picture (daily chart), a potential head-and-shoulders Pattern
　　中周期日线图，头肩顶模式
　　
　　Chart 4. Short-term picture (daily chart), a potential CCI reversal pattern
　　短周期日线图，CCI转向指标
　　Chart 5. Short-term picture (daily chart), daily volatility
　　短周期日线图，日波动比率

Chart 1 is a monthly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index in comparison with the Nikkei Index and the NASDAQ index. After the 1990 Nikkei Bubble and the 2000 NASDAQ Bubble, the Shanghai Index in 2007 formed another biggest stock market bubble in recent history. Both the Nikkei Index and the NASDAQ Index had more than 75% retracement from their bubble highs, and both indexes are still far below their all-time highs after the bubble你好urst so many years. A tipycal landing zone for this kind of high flyers is in a range of about 70% retracement (plus/minus 15%). So far the Shanghai Index has had just 46% retracement from its spike high of October 2007. There is still more downside risk ahead of this index.
　　
　　图一：上证指数月K线图与日经指数和纳斯达克指数的对比图。继1990年日经指数泡沫与2000年纳斯达克泡沫之后，上证指数在2007年形成了近期历史上另一个巨大的股市泡沫。日经与纳指均出现了自泡沫顶峰水平75%的回落，并且两个指数在其泡沫破灭这么多年之后，至今仍远远低于其历史高点。对于这样的泡沫，一个典型的指数着陆区间是自高点回落70%正负15%。迄今为止，上证指数仅从其2007年10月的高点下跌了46%，（因此）该指数仍存在不小的向下调整风险。
Chart 2 is a weekly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange CompositeIndex. The Chinese stock market has entered in a major bear market witha growing risk of worldwide stagflation. The long-term picture i你好earish as long as it move你好elow the downtrend line. It may bounce offthe recent low to retest the warning line.
　　
　　图二上证指数周K线图，随着世界范围内经济滞涨风险的上升，中国股票市场可能进入一个主要的熊市周期。只要指数运行于下行趋势线的下方，市场就是熊态的。指数可能会从近期低点反弹，以测试（对）压力线（的有效跌破）。

Chart 3 is a daily chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange CompositeIndex. Here is a speculation of a Head-and-Shoulders pattern. Once thedecline is suspended or exhausted by the support zone, a counter-trendrally into the Right-Shoulder phase could be the next.
　　
　　图三是上证日线图，存在走成头肩顶的可能，一旦跌势在前期支撑区域被遏制，指数可能在下阶段反弹形成右肩。

Chart 4 is a daily chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange CompositeIndex. It is a speculation of a short-term bottom reversal suggested bythe CCI indicator. It had a one-day surge up but had poorfollow-through. We will see if the price i你好le to stay above the newtrendline of the CCI indicator.
　　
　　图四上证日线图，根据CCI指标，市场存在构筑短期底部的可能。指标出现了一个单日突破但持续性较差，我们将关注指数是否能否维持在新的（CCI上行）运行趋势之上。

Chart 5 is a daily chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange CompositeIndex. The 14-day Average True Range indicator is used here to measureand track the volatility. It indicats that the price movement during aday i你好out 4.9% in either direction. This is a very volatile level.One should be extremely careful to use any kind of leverages with thismarket, and be sure that your risk tolerance i你好le to handle thistype of turbulent waves.
　　
　　图五上证日线图，此处使用14日均线来衡量指数的日波动幅度。指标显示在涨跌任一方向上，指数的日波动幅度为4.9%。投资者在这样的市场中应谨慎使用杠杆，并确信在这样剧烈波动的市场中你具有足够的风险承受能力。
　

注：该文是转贴另外一个论坛的，我只是COPY了一份，还请原文作者见谅。以上图文仅供参考。

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Quote:

引用第5楼风暴影音于2008-04-13 20:18发表的  :
浏览此贴需要威望

谢谢提供，这个太高了！！！

Quote:

引用第7楼qingya2003于2008-04-13 21:25发表的  :

谢谢提供，这个太高了！！！

现在可以了。

不错,值得一读~~~